Clarion Investment Diary – April 2026

The Clarion Investment Committee met on Thursday, 16 April. The following notes summarise the main points of consideration in the Investment Committee discussions but have been updated to include commentary on recent events and the wider implications for financial markets.

Please click here to access our April Stock Market & Economic Commentary written by Clarion Group Chairman, Keith Thompson.

The Clarion approach to investment management

Our investment philosophy is guided by proven financial research, applied with care by our in-house Investment Committee. We do not chase trends or make predictions. Instead, we rely on evidence, structure, and oversight to manage wealth responsibly over the long term.

We focus on what can be controlled: diversification, discipline, and costs. This allows us to create efficient portfolios designed to weather uncertainty and deliver the returns that markets provide.

Our approach is built on five enduring principles, which together form the foundation of our Investment Philosophy.

Each of the five philosophy pillars reflects our commitment to managing your wealth with clarity, discipline, and care.

1) Evidence-based investing. Disciplined diversified portfolios deliver better long-term outcomes than chasing the latest market trend.

2) A systematic process. A structured repeatable process designed to remove guesswork and emotion.

3) Cost efficiency. We carefully select cost-effective investment solutions without compromising quality.

4) Independent oversight. Every decision is reviewed and challenged by our in-house Investment Committee, supported by Margetts Fund Management and Dynamic Planner.

5) A responsible perspective. Identifying risks and opportunities that could affect your wealth in the years to come and building resilience into client portfolios.

Economic commentary and market outlook

The following is a summary of the major events and economic news since the last Clarion Investment Diary.

Middle East conflict

US president Donald Trump agreed to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran for an undefined period of time to permit further talks
Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz after US forces boarded an oil tanker that was claimed to be carrying Iranian oil. Shipping traffic through the Strait remains very limited
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said that 34 ships had been turned around as the US continues its blockade of Iranian shipping
The price of oil rose to $106 a barrel
US president Donald Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed a three-week extension to their ceasefire. Iran has demanded an end to attacks on Lebanon as part of any deal to end the conflict.
Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said that Israel is prepared to return Iran “to the dark and stone ages” while the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force Majid Mousavi said that “Iran’s southern neighbours should know that if their geographies and facilities are used in the service of enemies to attack the Iranian nation, they must say goodbye to oil production in the Middle East”
Mr Trump ordered the US Navy to strike any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
Mr Trump explicitly ruled out using a nuclear weapon in Iran, saying: “A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody.”
Mr Trump said he would send officials to Pakistan for new negotiations with Iran. He also said that the US would attack power plants and bridges in Iran if a deal was not agreed
Mr Trump said the US blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place until an agreement is reached.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron hosted a summit to devise an international plan to help secure the Strait after the conflict ends
EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis warned that the bloc will face a “stagflationary” shock of low growth and rising inflation, despite the ceasefire agreement
The European Commission said it would relax methane rules on fossil fuel importers to maintain energy supplies across the bloc amid reduced global oil and gas production
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine’s electronic warfare systems and interceptors were used to down Iranian attack drones in the Gulf

Economics

Early estimates of economic activity for April compiled from surveys of purchasing managers suggest accelerating momentum in the US and UK, but a decline in the euro area
US prosecutors announced that they are dropping their criminal investigation into Fed chair Jay Powell over the renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters. The development could ease Congressional approval for the proposed replacement of Kevin Warsh
UK inflation rose to 3.3% in the year to March, largely driven by an 8.7% month-on-month increase in motor fuel prices
The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9% in the four months to February, driven by a rise in inactivity rather than employment. Average weekly earnings growth slowed to 3.8%
UK retail sales rose by 0.7% from February to March, driven by a rise in petrol sales as consumers stocked up on petrol ahead of expected price rises
UK public borrowing in the fiscal year ending in March came in at £132 billion, down £20 billion from the previous year as tax and national insurance revenues grew by 9.1% while spending only rose by 5.6%
The OECD published analysis showing that in 2025, the UK saw the largest increase in the proportion of labour income paid in tax by the average worker (including employer/employee social contributions) among its membership of 38 mainly advanced economies
UK consumer confidence declined for a third consecutive month in April, falling to a two-and-a-half-year low, according to GfK
The International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for global growth this year. The UK saw the largest downgrade of G7 countries, by 0.5 percentage points to 0.8% growth this year, while the euro area and the Middle East also saw downward revisions
Mr Trump said he could change the US-UK trade deal announced last year due to the UK’s limited support for military action against Iran
The UK government announced plans to scrap additional charges that fossil fuel power stations pay for producing carbon dioxide emissions, amid rising energy costs
The UK government announced plans to expand its British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) to lower energy costs for up to 10,000 manufacturers by removing green levies from their energy costs
Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said that Mr Trump’s calls for lower interest rates to reduce the servicing costs on US public debt are “what you hear in a banana republic” and warned of the threat to the Fed’s independence from such comments
The US government has called for US oil companies to increase drilling in a bid to increase oil supply and dampen rising prices
Finance ministers and central bankers warned against the threats to the global banking system from tech company Anthropic’s latest AI model, reportedly capable of detecting previously unknown vulnerabilities in IT systems
US inflation increased to 3.3% in the year to March, up from 2.4% the previous month and the highest since May 2024, driven by higher energy prices
US consumer sentiment fell in March to its lowest level on record, according to preliminary estimates by the University of Michigan
The economic impact of ‘long-COVID’ is forecast to cost OECD countries up to $135 billion a year over the next decade, according to OECD research
Almost one-third of UK businesses are planning to use algorithmic tools to adjust prices in response to market conditions such as demand, capacity and competitors’ prices, up from 21% a year ago, according to the Bank of England
UK new car registrations grew by nearly 7% in March compared with the same month last year, the best performing month since 2019, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
The Chinese-made Jaecoo 7 was the UK’s best-selling car in March
Chinese carmakers doubled their share of UK car sales in March to 15% compared with the same month last year, according to SMMT, amid a record month for electric vehicle sales and rapid growth of Chinese carmakers
EU regulators called for a fund of up to €65 billion to cover insurers for major natural disasters in a bid to increase insurance coverage of such risks

Business

Shares in chipmaker Intel jumped 25% as it announced higher-than-expected revenue growth driven by the boom in data centre construction
Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, announced it would cut 10% of its global workforce while Microsoft said it would offer voluntary redundancy to 7% of its US workforce as both companies look to make savings as they make huge investments into AI
US authorities charged a soldier for allegedly using classified information to place highly profitable bets on prediction markets relating to the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro
French police are investigating whether a weather station at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris was tampered with after a series of suspicious bets on Polymarket coincided with unexpected temperature readings
Apple announced that its CEO Tim Cook will step down in September after over 15 years at the top, a period that saw Apple’s market valuation soar from $312 billion to over $4 trillion
The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority announced that Heathrow Airport will be permitted to raise fees to airlines to recoup the costs of its application to build a third runway
The EU is planning to relax corporate merger rules in an attempt to facilitate the rise of European champions better able to compete against US and Chinese rivals
The BBC announced plans to cut up to 2,000 jobs across departments, ahead of the arrival of new director-general Matt Brittin
Japanese carmaker Nissan held talks with Chinese rival Chery about manufacturing cars at Nissan’s Sunderland factory in an attempt to increase the factory’s utilisation amid sluggish consumer demand and high production costs, the FT reports
US tech company Anthropic is in discussions with the US government about granting access to its latest AI model. So far, only a select few companies have been granted access, given the model’s capability to detect vulnerabilities in security systems
San Francisco-based trainer company Allbirds announced plans to become an “AI compute infrastructure” business after being sold for $39 million earlier this month. The company was once valued at more than $4 billion
UK households and factories will be offered payments by the National Energy Systems Operator to use more electricity at certain times of the day as part of a scheme to better balance electricity supply and demand
The US government and US Federal Reserve summoned leaders of large US banks to discuss security risks posed by the latest AI models capable of identifying cybersecurity vulnerabilities, Bloomberg reports
US bank JP Morgan reached an agreement to construct Canary Wharf’s tallest tower following discussions regarding its height, given the airport’s proximity
US tech company OpenAI said it will pause its Stargate UK data centre project due to high energy costs and regulatory uncertainty
Consumer goods company Unilever agreed to acquire US vitamin gummies brand Grüns in a drive towards the wellness and beauty sector

Global and political developments

The EU approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine and a new package of sanctions after Ukraine reopened a pipeline transporting Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, leading those countries to drop their veto
Swedish head of military intelligence Thomas Nilsson said that the Russian economy is in considerably worse shape than official statistics suggest, despite a higher oil price boosting government revenue
The US is considering options, including suspending Spain from NATO and reviewing its position on the Falkland Islands amid frustration over limited support from allies for its military actions against Iran, Reuters reports
UK prime minister Keir Starmer faced questions from MPs in a row over the security vetting relating to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the US
The UK and France signed a three-year £662 million deal that will see French police deployed to prevent migrants from crossing the English Channel
Russia launched its largest missile attack against Ukraine this year, killing at least 17 people across Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia
Former Nato secretary-general and author of the government’s strategic defence review, Lord George Robertson, said Britain’s leaders have shown “corrosive complacency” towards defence and that Mr Starmer was “not willing to make the necessary [defence] investment”
Chinese authorities told global shipping companies Maersk and MSC to cease their operations at ports on the Panama Canal after they took control of two ports from Hong Kong-based group CK Hutchinson, the FT reports
People in England’s most deprived areas spend less than 50 years in good health, compared with nearly 70 years for the richest areas, according to the latest official data
Canada’s ruling Liberal Party secured a majority government following three by-election wins and a number of MPs crossing the floor
Legislators in Maine passed a statewide ban on data centre construction, the first US state to do so amid rising opposition to AI infrastructure
Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins left his post over claims that the Foreign Office failed to inform Mr Starmer that Peter Mandelson had failed a security vetting before being appointed as UK ambassador to the US
Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat in the country’s elections. Opposition leader Peter Magyar secured a landslide victory
Mr Magyar’s centre-right Tisza Party wants closer ties with the EU
Chinese president Xi Jinping met with Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan’s opposition party, amid ongoing tensions between Taiwan and China over Beijing’s ambitions to assert control over the island
The UK government said its military had tracked a month-long covert Russian submarine operation in and around UK waters that focused on UK cables and pipelines
Following opposition from the US, the UK government has shelved legislation that would have handed sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius
The UK government announced that interest rates on ‘plan 2’ student loans in England will be capped at 6% from September this year, amid expectations of rising inflation
UK health officials said they have discussed banning UK doctors from striking amid ongoing industrial action over the past three years over pay, the FT reports

Strategy

Notwithstanding the market turmoil created by the Middle East conflict, the Investment Committee are comfortable with the current strategy, with diversification of asset classes, sectors, and range of funds being the key. A tilt towards value has also helped the portfolios to hold up very well in the recent market sell-off.
The bond allocations within the portfolios target short and mid sections of the yield curve where capital appreciation is expected.
Index-linked bonds are also included in the bond allocations as a hedge against persistent inflation.
High-yield bond strategies are avoided as credit spreads do not currently offer a worthwhile risk premium.
The US equity market is underweighted on a valuation basis, and strategies within the portfolio are particularly underweight mega-cap tech stocks.
The UK equity market is conversely overweighted on a valuation basis. It was noted that the UK economy is vastly different to UK PLC, with over 75% of corporate earnings being derived from overseas.
Asia, Emerging Markets, and China are also overweighted as they trade below their long-term historical average. The IC believe these regions have the potential to grow their valuations in the long-term from a low base. Investors are often surprised to discover the breadth, versatility and return opportunities the asset class can offer their portfolios. Combined, emerging market economies account for over 50% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 45% of global consumer spending and roughly 87% of the world’s population.
UK and US small and mid-cap equity allocations also have a small weighting in the portfolios based on an attractive entry point, which current valuations provide.
The performance of all funds was compared against their IA sector benchmarks, observing that most have performed well, particularly Dimensional European Value and Invesco Emerging Markets, both of which have significantly outperformed. Concern was raised about the slight underperformance of the Dimensional Emerging Markets Targeted Value Fund. This will be kept under review at subsequent meetings.
No changes to the underlying funds were considered necessary at this stage, as all funds are performing in line with expectations and within their risk-reward parameters.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, concerns about the state of the global economy, the extent of government spending and debt, over-regulation and high taxation, and more volatile and higher inflation, the Investment Committee are cautiously optimistic about stock markets in 2026.
The recent market sell-off because of the Middle East conflict has created more value in all major markets, particularly Asia, Emerging Markets, Europe, Japan and the UK, where valuations are now very attractive by most historical measures. Even the US, where we have been concerned about high valuations for some time, is now beginning to look attractive from a valuation perspective. The Investment Committee do, however, remain concerned by the level of market concentration courtesy of the US Mag 7 tech stocks, which still poses increased risk and draws the oxygen out of the room regarding the attractions of other markets, but investor sentiment appears to be shifting. The Clarion Portfolio Funds are positioned accordingly.

Holding a globally diversified portfolio of high-quality assets is important to provide resilience and grow the value of savings over the long term and remains the appropriate method for allocation of investor capital. Cash is unattractive as inflationary pressures, although moderating, look to remain elevated over the long term.

Clarion Funds

Prudence Fund

The chart below shows the historical performance of the Prudence Portfolio against a relevant benchmark since the start of the available data.

Changes to the Prudence Fund & Portfolio   

No changes

Navigator Fund

The chart below shows the historical performance of the Navigator Portfolio against a relevant benchmark since the start of the available data.

Changes to the Navigator Fund & Portfolio   

No changes

Meridian Fund

The chart below shows the historical performance of the Meridian Portfolio against a relevant benchmark since the start of the available data.

Changes to the Meridian Fund & Portfolio   

No changes

Explorer Fund

The chart below shows the historical performance of the Explorer Portfolio against a relevant benchmark since the start of the available data.

Changes to the Explorer Fund & Portfolio

No changes

Keith W Thompson

Clarion Group Chairman

April 2026

Risk Warnings

Any investment performance figures referred to relate to past performance which is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. The value of investments, and the income arising from them, can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed, which means that you may not get back what you invested. Unless indicated otherwise, performance figures are stated in British Pounds. Where performance figures are stated in other currencies, changes in exchange rates may also cause an investment to fluctuate in value.

The content of this article does not constitute financial advice, and you may wish to seek professional advice based on your individual circumstances before making any financial decisions.